That means the opposite of the conditions most Californians experienced over the last two years - sea surface temperatures are warmer than average, which means rain and snow in California are more likely. Santa Cruz, CA Weather Forecast AccuWeather Frost Advisory Current Weather 5:42 AM 37° F RealFeel® 37° Air Quality Fair Wind NW 4 mph Wind Gusts 12 mph Partly cloudy More Details. There’s a 60% chance an El Niño pattern will develop by the fall, according to NOAA, though it noted that ENSO forecasts are less accurate in the spring. John Blanchard / The Chronicleīut those neutral conditions may not last for long. Temperature and moisture patterns for El Niño and La Niña. That bears out in NOAA’s three-month weather forecast for California - as of now, there’s an equal chance of either above or below average temperatures and precipitation for the majority of the state. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 16 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. North northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. As a result, there’s less push from the Pacific to “influence seasonal climate patterns,” climate scientist Emily Becker wrote in the NOAA blog. Lo 40 F Tonight: Clear early, then becoming cloudy, with a low around 38. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 11 seconds and S around 2 ft at 13 seconds. National Weather Service Marine Forecast NOAA Buoy Summary. That means ENSO has moved into a neutral pattern, when sea surface temperatures are close to average. Today N winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming NW 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Mixed swell.WSW 1 ft at 9 seconds and WSW 1 ft at 14. Last month, sea surface temperatures in the region of the Pacific Ocean used to monitor El Niño and La Niña rose past the La Niña threshold, prompting scientists at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center to declare its end. NOAA Weather Marine Forecast for Santa Cruz (Monterey Bay), CA. This year, La Niña showed signs of weakening as other weather patterns took over, bringing more rain and colder temperatures despite La Niña’s influence. But, as evidenced by this winter’s unrelenting rain, “that doesn’t happen all the time.” “Like this winter, folks were concerned that La Niña would exacerbate the drought because it does tilt the odds towards drier conditions,” she explained.
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